By Rod Walton
Staff Writer
As printed in the Tulsa World, January 6, 2008

Good luck trying to predict what's going to happen with Oklahoma agriculture in 2008.

Prices and politics may play a big part, but the biggest mystery for producers always comes down to one bigger thing – the weather.

Folks can talk about it all they want, but no one confidently can predict how it will affect their business this year. In fact, predicting anything about agriculture is a dicey proposition.

"It's unknown," Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association president Ray Heldermon admitted. "I wish I could answer that question."

Good news is that beef, wheat and other producers at least know what the primary questions are. They expect 2008 to be relatively strong – yet tight – because of uncertainties over feed and fuel costs, and potential legislative changes.

Most cattle operators are hoping that Congress and President Bush agree to make country-of-origin labeling voluntary in the pending farm bill, Heldermon noted. The 2007 version calls for mandatory labeling at grocery stores and markets, but the 2002 farm bill initially required the same labeling before it was changed.

Beef producers also realize that feed prices need to go down or feedlot operators will pay less for their products.

"If the feedlots keep losing money, they won't be paying that much for calves," he said.

The multi-billion dollar Oklahoma cattle industry also is hoping that foreign markets in Asia and elsewhere buy more American beef and loosen certain age restrictions dating back to the mad cow disease scare. Domestic demand may be decreasing slightly due to fuel costs and the housing finance crisis, according to reports.

Wheat farmers have got to believe that Mother Nature will lighten up a little in 2008. They survived a historic drought in 2006, but watched many of their fields flood last year.

"Weather is always a challenge beyond our control," said Dan Childs, agricultural economist for the Ardmore-based Noble Foundation. "It really threw us a curveball the last couple of years."

Wheat and corn farmers should expect good years – weather permitting, of course. Wheat prices are way up, while corn is buoyed by government-supported demand for ethanol.

"We're kind of cocked for a good wheat crop if Mother Nature complies," Childs said. "The foundation is set for the wheat farmer to do very well in Oklahoma this year."

Yeah, well, they've heard that before. But Childs believes that wheat will stay above $6 a bushel – it edged around $9 last week – which should inspire producers to harvest more acres.

Higher corn prices, meanwhile, will drive up feed costs for livestock producers. Those factors bring much of agriculture full-circle, and lead to the same old question: How's the weather?

This article appeared in the Tulsa World, www.tulsaworld.com, on January 6, 2008.